AGI Timeline議論。Compute Bottleneck (Capex $1T・Power 5GW)・Data Wall (Pretraining Token不足・Synthetic Data依存)・Test-Time Compute Scaling (o1/o3 突破口)・Reasoning RL Scaling・Leopold Aschenbrenner Situational Awareness 2027 AGI予測・Daniel Kokotajlo AI 2027・METR Time Horizon・Dario Amodei (Anthropic) Powerful AI 2026-2027・Sam Altman Brilliant Friend・¥0 知識・Bitter Lesson Sutton、2026年AGI Definition論議活発化。